Adrian E. Bayer, Uros Seljak

When searching over a large parameter space for anomalies such as events, peaks, objects, or particles, there is a large probability that spurious signals with seemingly high significance will be found. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect and is prevalent throughout cosmology, (astro)particle physics, and beyond. To avoid making false claims of detection, one must account for this effect when assigning the statistical significance of an anomaly. This is typically accomplished by considering the trials factor, which is generally computed numerically via potentially expensive simulations. In this paper we develop a continuous generalization of the Bonferroni and Sidak corrections by applying the Laplace approximation to evaluate the Bayes factor, and in turn relating the trials factor to the prior-to-posterior volume ratio. We use this to define a test statistic whose frequentist properties have a simple interpretation in terms of the global $p$-value, or statistical significance. We apply this method to various physics-based examples and show it to work well for the full range of $p$-values, i.e. in both the asymptotic and non-asymptotic regimes. We also show that this method naturally accounts for other model complexities such as additional degrees of freedom, generalizing Wilks' theorem. This provides a fast way to quantify statistical significance in light of the look-elsewhere effect, without resorting to expensive simulations.

James Bonifacio, Kurt Hinterbichler

A compact Riemannian manifold is associated with geometric data given by the eigenvalues of various Laplacian operators on the manifold and the triple overlap integrals of the corresponding eigenmodes. This geometric data must satisfy certain consistency conditions that follow from associativity and the completeness of eigenmodes. We show that it is possible to obtain nontrivial bounds on the geometric data of closed Einstein manifolds by using semidefinite programming to study these consistency conditions, in analogy to the conformal bootstrap bounds on conformal field theories. These bootstrap bounds translate to constraints on the tree-level masses and cubic couplings of Kaluza-Klein modes in theories with compact extra dimensions. We show that in some cases the bounds are saturated by known manifolds.